However, although Felsenstein the atheist will likely acknowledge there is no actual teleology in evolution he nonetheless accepts that thinking about evolution in terms of its end result of fitness makes the whole process (pseudo) meaningful: Felsenstein points out that the earlier ID concept of Complex Specified information (CSI) is intrinsically more meaningful than ASC and notes that CSI was explicitly stated by William Dembski in terms of end results: Viz:
Monday, June 15, 2020
Breaking Through the Information Barrier in Natural History Part 5
However, although Felsenstein the atheist will likely acknowledge there is no actual teleology in evolution he nonetheless accepts that thinking about evolution in terms of its end result of fitness makes the whole process (pseudo) meaningful: Felsenstein points out that the earlier ID concept of Complex Specified information (CSI) is intrinsically more meaningful than ASC and notes that CSI was explicitly stated by William Dembski in terms of end results: Viz:
Friday, May 29, 2020
Signalled Diffusion Book V: Complex Drift-Diffusion Signalling
Introduction
This book rehashes and enhances some of the mathematics that can be found in Gravity and Quantum Non-Linearity and Gravity from Quantum Non-Linearity. In particular it redoes the mathematics leading to the complex non-linear equation numbered in the text as 15.1. It also probes a bit further into the nature of the sub-microscopic signalling regime that gives rise to this equation. As I have said on several occasions this is a highly speculative personal project that in all likelihood amounts to little more than a walk down an obscure track in the woods to nowhere special. But one takes a walk not because it necessarily is going to end up somewhere significant but instead one enjoys the walk for its own sake. It is our duty and yet also our pleasure to enjoy the highways and byways of creation and creativity.
Thursday, May 21, 2020
Contradictions, The Academic Establishment and Matt Ridley.
But "Libertarianism" with its connotation of freedom, freedom of choice, freedom to exercise responsibility to build a successful life, freedom of speech and above all a fancied freedom from government has inherent contradictions For in a world full of zero sum games we have more often than not this constraint:
That is, too much freedom for me may subtract from your freedoms. Freedom then is about balance & community, and good community means taking into account the freedoms of others. This is just as true of so-called "free speech" as it is for access to material resources: A vociferous campaign of free speech against another party can curtail their freedoms. Language can be used as an instrument of coercion; that becomes especially clear when we remember that social connection & status are among humanities strongest motivations and speech is the first port of call to be used to assert pecking order. Absolute "free speech" is a contradiction if we are to respect community.
The anti-government stance of extreme "libertarian" leftists and rightists is an affectation: When they claim to be anti-government what they really mean, of course, is that they are anti status quo and anti-establishment; they are in effect anti those institutions of state over which they have little influence. If the revolutions which they aspire to ever took place you can rest assured that these extremists would soon install the strongest forms of government in order to coerce and maintain their vision of society i.e a dictatorship: As I said in my last blog post:
So was Ridley going to join the Trump supporting conspiracy theorists? Well no, he's far too clever for that I'm glad say. In fact in reading his blog I found a lot of good and intelligent stuff there that I wouldn't want to take issue with and could recommend. But there remains the question of which tribe, if any, does he identify with? There are to my mind indicators to be found in his writings that he identifies with the tribal right-wing. Here are three examples where Ridley betrays his right-wing tribal sympathies:
Example 1
Take this blog post here where Ridley discusses the apparent slow down in technological advance in various industries, an example being aircraft: I had long noted this one myself: My father's life time saw progress from the first rickety bi-planes right through to space travel. But in my life time jet aircraft, although more refined and complex, seemed to have plateaued in their performance envelop. Manned space travel has also plateaued in my time. The same is probably also true of automotive technology. I put this down to the limitations within the platonic world of technological configuration space which is constrained and controlled by a physical regime over which we have no power to change. Delving into this space is a bit like mining for gold; there comes a point of diminishing returns where more and more effort is needed to get out less and less out. Consider for example computerisation; Moore's law applies for a while and fast progress can be maintained initially, but not indefinitely. For we know that there are physical limits on what can be stored and processed using the current physical paradigm. If we are to do better, new (and often unforeseen) technological breakthroughs are required. There could be another revolution in computerisation if breakthroughs in quantum computing take place. Likewise we would see huge market changes if there are ever breakthroughs in portable fusion energy, zero point energy or anti-gravity; in fact such changes would likely require new and revolutionary understandings in theoretical physics to be made first.
I'd be the first to admit that market catalysed innovation and wealth can be suppressed and/or discouraged by cultural and political factors. But for a right wing trouble-shooting political animal like Ridley politics is his first of port call: In Ridley's mind, not to mention the minds among his class affiliation, bad government regulation is the usual suspect suppressing progress. That the platonic world of configuration space has an important bearing on progress hasn't come into his consideration here. Ridley's "libertarianism" sets him up for a default which means that government regulation of business must come under first critical scrutiny. But if Ridley and his tribe, as they make a grab for wealth, think they can leave the poor as a trickle-down-after-thought then they are encouraging alienation & disaffection, and handing society on a plate to the revolutionaries.
Example 2
Let's now look at a blog post by Ridley on covid-19. The post is largely filled with sensible and informative observations - it's worth reading. But Ridley may well betray his tribal affiliation when he gets to this:
Once again the Ridley is found rubbishing the establishment, this time the (undoubtedly left leaning) academic establishment. Ridley's response here is very reminiscent of the right-wingers I mention in this blog post where we find these right-wingers expressing suspicion of "modelling" and even going as far as to suggest that modeling isn't science; rather they want something "empirical"! The right-wingers I mention in that post are so stupid as to be unable to see that modelling is all about modelling empirical reality and therefore in science modelling and data go together like coach and horses.
But the problem Ridley and his tribe have is that "modelling" usually comes out of university theoretical departments. The right-wing tribe, as a rule, don't like university departments because they don't have too many allies in that sub-culture, a sub-culture which is not particularly motivated by profiteering and market choices, but whose income is pretty much tied to taxation; i.e. universities are a department of government! Therefore they must be bad!
Of course we never know enough and we always need more data but that doesn't stop the building of models which attempt to join the data dots we do have in order to understand that data. That's what science is about: i.e. building and testing models: No model, no testing and therefore no science.
Seldom, if ever, are models anything other than approximations and simplifications of a more complex reality. But what's the point of accumulating more data if one then doesn't use that data to update, enhance and sophisticate one's models? As Hume showed data samples in and of themselves are meaningless and useless; what makes that data cohere are the underlying ideas we have about that data (i.e. models). Only models can give us a chance of making predictions; an inventory of disconnected data can't do that because as soon as one makes predictions using that data one has necessarily moved over into the realm of interpretation and models.
A few minutes of mathematical jiggery-pokery is all that is required to come up with our first crude covid model: The exponential growth in time G(t) of a breeding organism is given by:
The above equation is the result of a few minutes mathematical deliberation by a non-expert; so if I can do this in a few minutes you can be sure that the bright sparks at Imperial College have got the time, space and aptitude to do a lot, lot better. Of course there is always room for criticising and enhancing the most sophisticated of models - but the modellers at Imperial will be well aware of that too! In any case the R-value averaged over a variety of demographics does give us some indication of the realities although if substituted into a single demographic equation like 1.0 it wouldn't return very accurate predictions. Even better than simplifying analytical equations is to carry out as near as possible a very literal simulation inside a super-computer.
Unless wholly misconceived models should not be buried in favour of meaningless lists of data, especially if the model is at the very least a first approximation. Approximate models are the starting point and foundations on which more sophisticated models can be built and their subsequent predictive value is a measure of how close they are to converging on a depiction of reality. To my mind it's a good thing Imperial College's model has spread across the world - the more hands-on-deck critical analysis (and subsequent enhancements) it gets the better.
Example 3
Ridley's right-wing tribal affiliations and credentials were confirmed when I spotted this blog post where we hear about Ridley's audio appearance on the show of conspiracy theorist and Mormon Glen Beck. Beck isn't quite in the same league as batshitcrazy Alex Jones although not that far from it. According to Wiki:
Footnote
* They also thought that since a communist society was supposedly "classless"and a place where everyone's interests were supposed to harmonise & coincide there would be no more social strife (!). Tell that to the marines!
Sunday, April 26, 2020
Intelligence, Oracles, Magic and Politics
As I have remarked many times on this blog the de facto Intelligent Design movement affects to leave the internal details of the "intelligence" they believe to have stepped in and directly created life as a mystery. There is some justification in this policy: When handling great mysteries (e.g. Divinity) caution is sometimes the better part of valour and so it may be best to proceed apophatically; that is, to define the mystery in terms of what it isn't. An apophatic approach to intelligence seems to be stock in trade of the de facto ID community in North America. In fact as far as I can tell the mainstream IDists believe that the intelligent agent which created life is neither explicable in terms of so-called "natural forces" or even for that matter any process which has the potential to be expressed algorithmically no matter how complex that algorithm may be. I find their views a little ironic: As many of them make claim to a Christian faith one might think that those so-called "natural forces" which we as Christians believe to be God's sublime Creation may hold one or two surprises for us as to what these "forces" (under Sovereign management) can do; after all, Quantum Mechanics alone has left enlightenment humankind thoroughly perplexed as to what it all means (For a start it is no longer meaningful to talk of matter as having identity of substance; identity comes via configuration). But no, in the de-facto IDist world the "profane natural forces" vs "sacred intelligent agency" dichotomy is their habitual thesis and anti-thesis. In their view "matter" is too debased and inferior to be a secondary source of the dignified sublimity of mind.
So, in the light of all this I was not in the least bit surprised to find a post on the de facto Intelligent Design website Uncommon Descent with links to ID material giving the clearest evidence I've yet seen that de facto ID prefers to think about true "Intelligence" as a property tantamount to a magical power, setting it apart from anything else we encounter in this world*1. The UD post in question alerts us to one of de facto ID's gurus who is attempting to identify human intelligence as having the ability to act as a "partial halting oracle". That is, it is assumed that human intelligence is an oracle which can in some (but not all) cases solve the halting problem. According to Wiki. the concept of an "Oracle" as used in computational theory is defined as follows:
Turning to my subjective perspective on my own thought life I must say that it certainly doesn't feel like some magical oracle able to coolly solve a problem just like that! In contrast problem solving requires the hard graft of mental searching as one attempts to make connections which lead to solutions. To me my thought life feels much more like the seek, reject and select trial & error grind of a Thinknet search than it does ID's magical oracle where genius solutions just pop into the head. I see the hard work associated with thinking as a consequence of the overheard incurred by using a very general-purpose thinking system with a general purpose connectionist language to solve the generic problem; as this system is a jack-of-all trades-problem-solver it can be slow at solving specialised problems as it has to first translate the problem into its connecionist terms.
I don't have a strong claim to having clinched the essence of intelligence anymore than do the defacto IDists. But like myself they have just as much right to investigate an avenue of possibility in their search for what intelligence is about. In fact I believe their presence is a good thing; the more people investigating different avenues the better. For all I know the IDists might be right! Also, like the IDists I believe that intelligence of some sort underpins the nature of the cosmos. So under any other circumstances I would applaud the IDists efforts at tentatively trying to move forward with something new; after all that's science for you. But I'm afraid in this case I can't applaud. Why is that?
Well, the answer to that is politics especially the politics in North America. It's the catalyst that has precipitated and hardened a "natural forces" vs "intelligent agency" polarisation. The IDists are persona non grata among the academic establishment and so it is no surprise that these IDists have been tempted to put all their eggs into the "intelligence-is-magic" basket in order to batter academia's evolutionary and algorithmic rendering of the processes of life, processes the academics believe to have generated human intelligence. Some times I wonder if the de facto ID people aren't really being serious with their proposals and simply come up with their stuff just to rile the academic establishment!
Crackpot daftness can be found on the extremes of both left and right, but my argument here is with the right-wingery of the de facto ID community. Right wing sentiments ultimately drive their all but exclusive commitment to an Oracular paradigm of intelligence. They've backed themselves into the cramped corner of this paradigm because they are suspicious of those government tenured academics who for the most part will get rubbed up the wrong way by de facto ID's support of oracular intelligence.
The republican language coming out of England's 1642 civil war fed into the American war of independence (from tax) and now the North American right-wing endlessly recapitulate the sentiments of this language Viz: interference coming from a tax funded government is at best regarded with suspicion and at worse as evidence of a deep government conspiracy. For example, on Uncommon Descent one can find references to "climate change alarmism" and also "covid-19 lock down alarmism". The emotive term "alarmism" is the keyword expressing right-wing apprehensions about projects largely emanating from government sponsored tax funded bodies. In my view coordinating the social responses to the black swans of climate change and covid-19 requires centralised information and control; such a response is well beyond the powers of the sluggish market with its distributed blind-watch-maker decisions. But such government involvement is the right-winger's worst nightmare come true; especially if government should muff it (which they often do!)
The pretext supporting the "libertarian" polemic about covid-19 and climate change is, however, entirely plausible if not sound: The world's wealth generating markets could be so affected by central government policies that it causes huge economic hardship or perhaps even an apocalyptic economic collapse. But this line of argument cuts both ways. Covid-19 and climate change, if left to run their courses, could conceivably also cause economic collapse. Moreover, the right wing's emotive language can be used against them: One might accuse them of promulgating "economic hardship alarmism", or "totalitarian new world order alarmism". Both sides are faced by the same dilemma: The fix may be worse than the problem!
Whilst I strongly reject the border-line Marxism and anti-theism found among some academics, neither can I support the right-wing affectation for so-called libertarianism. Libertarianism is to the free market as fundamentalism is to Christianity; they are the kiss of death for the things they purport to uphold. Sociopathic libertarianism is a source of social disaffection thus helping to serve up a discontented society on a platter to either Marxist or right-wing dictators. For example, allowing covid-19 to take its course is likely to strike harder among the poor than the rich and therefore this solution to our problems is readily perceived as the solution in favour of the rich. Moreover, self-branded "libertarianism" with its connotation of "liberty" comes under the heading of "self-praise is no recommendation": Looking at the mix of potential plutocrats, domineering characters and the well armed quasi-militias (in America) who make claim to the name "libertarian" it is easy to imagine a would be dictator arising from their ranks. And it wouldn't be the first time that "liberty" and "hegemony" have walked hand in hand; let's recall the outcomes of the English civil war of 1642, the French revolution of 1789, the October revolution and Mao's China. Idealism and hegemony are closely linked.
The many wildcards of socio-economics don't stop some people thinking they are clever predictors and planners. The open-endedness of socio-economic systems is a bottomless pit of new data that can be cherry-picked and tailored to support the favoured planning polemic. In a chaotic world human beings are necessarily complex adaptive systems and therefore by definition much better opportunists than they are planners. They make their decisions and take their opportunities on the hoof. Like other biological organisms society is a mix of central as well as distributed control and this mix no doubt better suits a chaotic world where black swans create new problems and at the same time deliver otherwise unforeseen opportunities. But the time honoured overriding concern of human beings is that of hanging on to the immediacies of survival at all costs and that's probably why many people favour social distancing rather than the long shot of saving an abstract economic system that more likely favours lining the rich man's pockets in his ivory tower before it gets to line your pockets (if you've survived covid-19!). While there's life there is hope, hope that the new opportunities open up into vistas of fruitful originality and prosperity. We can only plant and water; it is God that gives growth.
In a post on Uncommon Descent that I wouldn't necessarily want to take issue with we find an interesting comment from a character called "Polistra". Viz:
This commentator doesn't like the fact that the UD post suggests 900 bytes of covid-19 DNA is the reason why the world has shut down. Polistra clearly wants a much clearer statement that the culpability lies with GOVERNMENTS. Polistra doesn't tell us why governments want to shut the world down with what he calls a "fake" reason any more than flat earthers will tell us why the UN wants us to believe in a spherical earth instead of their flat earth. Although I don't think most UDers would go along with this kind of conspiracy theorism it's probably significant that they don't challenge him: He's one of them, he's part of their anti-government tribe! The irony is, as I have already said, that it's so easy to see dictators readily emerging from the ranks of the domineering fanatical right wingers if they should ever get power.
Footnotes
*2 Turing's halting theorem and Godel's incompleteness theorem are closely related in that both use the "runaway self-referencing" reasoning found in the diagonalisation procedure. Roger Penrose proposed that the human ability to understand Godel's argument proved that human thinking was an incomputable process. Hence Penrises ideas are also favoured by IDists. Whilst it is wrong to dismiss Penrose outright I have submitted my reasons why I don't follow him down this particular avenue..
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Anti-Science or Anti Academic Establishment?
Finally another example of an anti-science right-winger has come to light in a post by PZ Myers where Myers quotes a Tweet from Republican John Carnyn who is even clearer in his denial of modelling as valid science:
After #COVIDー19 crisis passes, could we have a good faith discussion about the uses and abuses of "modeling" to predict the future? Everything from public health, to economic to climate predictions. It isn't the scientific method, folks. https://t.co/OYBm3CIUxX— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) April 10, 2020
Anti-science Tweet
My own guess as to what really drives the right-wing anti-science agenda is a paranoid counter cultural malaise which smarts under the realisation that they have little influence and credibility among the academic establishment elite. What's worrying, however, is that in America some of these right-wingers are armed to the teeth and may start shooting if they don't get their way.
Relevant links.
See also the link below to the de facto ID website Uncommon Descent where we find a video that is ignorant of the status of the second law of thermodynamics:
https://uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/when-scientists-ignore-science-by-mark-champney
Footnotes
* Some "New Agers" seem to be going down a similar road to Christian Fundamentalists especially regarding conspiracy theorism, and anti-vaxing. They have a similar attitude to academia as do fundamentalists.
** This assumption of a rational regular world appears to break down in paranormal connections. In paranormal circumstances the world, locally at least, slips into an almost dream state (cf "The Oz effect"). These experiences form muddled erratic patterns that are the anti-thesis of a testable regular reality. The paranormal is a breakdown of rationality, a kind of storm of delirium in the usually regular fabric of reality. Hence the great difficulty of attempts to get an epistemic handle on the paranormal. Paranormal experiences do, however, seem to have some kind of loose associative/connotative/Freudian meaning not unlike dreams





